A Neighborhood Analysis of U.S. Homicide Clearances in 50 Cities: Examining Race and Disadvantage Across Neighborhood Types

The clearance rates of homicides in the United States have fallen from their high of 93% in 1962 to 52% in 2022. Over the last decade homicide clearance rates declined from 64% to 52%. Recent research found clear evidence that homicides of black victims were less likely to be cleared.

Previous research of homicide clearances has focused on two areas. The first approach evaluated factors that affected investigators’ ability to clear a case such as “workload, case characteristics, and sufficient evidence”.  A second approach has focused on communities’ structural features and economic conditions such as lower income rates and unemployment rates. This study utilized data from approximately 15,000 census tract/neighborhoods in the 50 largest U. S. cities over a ten-year period to evaluate the impact of these structural factors and economic conditions. Using this large database enabled researchers to mitigate confounding variables such as sample size, locations, and shorter periods of time. It also enabled researchers to account for changes in racial and ethnic residents and examine the importance of firearm availability in communities.

As researchers examined homicides and clearance rates in communities they evaluated the percentages of:

• Families in Poverty
• Single female-headed Households
• People in the Workforce and Unemployment Rates
• Families Receiving Public Assistance
• Race
• Percentage of Males Between 15 and 24 Years of Age, and
• Vacant Properties